How Maduro Stole the Venezuela Governor Elections (Part 1)
Venezuela is depressed. And we don’t mean just economically depressed, because they are that too: the 45% collapse in GDP is worse than the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930s which was “only” a 29% crash in GDP.
We mean that Venezuela’s people have been chronically, miasmically depressed since the government crushed the Recall Referendum last year, then kicked the country in the head by jamming through the fraudulently convened Constituent Assembly on July 30, and then stomped on the Opposition’s cojones in the governor elections on Sunday.
But it was the high profile, self-loathing doubters, defectors and Vichy appeasers that emerged this week that really depressed us. When turncoat Lara state governor (and former Chavista) Henry Falcon broke ranks with the Opposition within 24 hours of the election and without even an audit admitted “We lost,” it really ticked us off (though rumor has it that his quick capitulation may earn him an ambassadorship). When our friend Francisco “Quico” Toro, the founder of Caracas Chronicles who does amazing work translating the complexities of Venezuela to foreigners around the world, published an opinion piece the following day in the Washington Post titled “Venezuela’s democracy is fake, but the government’s latest election win was real” even before there was any decent analysis, research or audits (saying “Sunday showed that the government is still able to win elections without having to fabricate the voting tallies out of whole cloth”) — well, at best, that was the Opposition’s chronic self-doubt and depression talking.
In short, the CNE reported government wins ARE COMPLETELY FRAUDULENT. And clearly so. The proof follows.
It is easiest to start with the fraud in Bolivar state as it is the last to be completed and the sloppiest, with General Justo Noguera Pietri (who also has the dubious distinction of being on the U.S.’s OFAC sanction list) only being declared the winner by the CNE on Tuesday — after Maduro had already declared it.
The night of the election, the CNE put up the following results for the race in Bolivar, with Opposition candidate and former Governor Andres Velasquez winning the election by 5,315 votes over the government’s candidate.
But then, mysteriously, the CNE took the results down. Finally, on Tuesday night after much massaging, the CNE then put up the following new set of results with the regime candidate winning by 1,471 votes.
But in those results is the tell that something was fraudulent — the CNE added 12,924 votes into the new total, but 76% of those new votes went to the government candidate, when he had been averaging just 48% of the votes up until that last strange batch.
In math many things are possible, but many things are not necessarily probable. So, when you have a statistical anomaly in vote totals, you have to dig in to see where the votes came from. And that is where things got really dicey.
As you will see from the examples below, the end of day computer generated printout tabulations from the voting centers do not agree with the CNE posted figures from the voting centers. In fact, they show substantial differences.
So, for example the computer-generated tallies for the Unidad Educativa Integral Bolivariana La Mata voting center in the Heres Municipality of Bolivar show just 157 votes total, with 82 for Noguera and 72 for Velasquez (with the remaining 3 for Cesar Ramirez, which was of course part of another trick of leaving candidates defeated in the MUD primary on the ballot to confuse voters and siphon off opposition votes). At any rate, two days later, the CNE showed on their web page that Noguera now had 271 votes and Velasquez has just 3! So, not only did Velasquez lose 69 votes, but almost 90% of the registered voters suddenly voted and almost all for Noguera — even Cesar Ramirez lost his 3 votes as they all seemed to magically migrate to Major General Noguera!
In another voting center in Heres Municipality, Escuela Estadal Unitaria #52 also in the Zea Parrish, the official computer printed day end tally had just 45 votes but by the time the CNE reported it on their website it had become 88 votes, with 80 going to General Noguera for 91% of the vote — and a turnout figure of 86%.
This same transmogrification happened throughout Bolivar state (Not that I would wish Congressional testimony on anyone, but if you read my Senate Testimony, we saw a similar situation of statistically elevated turnout voting centers with almost all the votes going to Maduro in 2013 too).
So, for example, the Escuelo El Milagro in Cedeno Municipality also had this amazing voting transmogrification. 138 total votes from the tally suddenly became 380, for a 91% turnout. Major General Noguera’s votes went from the tallied 116 to 359 — and they even took the one vote that Alejandro Teran got and gave it to Noguera too (Teran shows 0 in the CNE web page though he has one in the official tally copy).
At the Escuela Nacional Concentrada 329 in the Cedeno Municipality we saw a signed off vote tally of 167 magically become 465 (overnight becoming a 97% turnout versus the national average of 61%) and while they let Governor Velasquez keep his 25 original votes, again they ironically took the 2 from Cesar Ramirez and the 2 from Francisco Sucre and also gave them to Major General Noguera so that he had 95% of the votes (and Ramirez and Sucre show 0 on the CNE webpage)!
In the Bolivariano Angostura Municipality (which pre-Chavez used to be called the Raul Leoni Municipality, after the former 1960s president), the fraud was much the same. The total number of votes suddenly went from the official tabulated 108 to 350, with 95% for General Noguera and 90% turnout!
When the company that designed, provided the software, and runs the voting machines says that the votes that the government reported are at least a million votes off — as Smartmatic did on July 31 after the fraudulent Constituent Assembly — one cannot be shocked that there is cheating going on in this establishment.
When the government-controlled CNE announces that they will not be using the traditional finger dye to mark voters so that they cannot repeatedly vote, then that is a huge tell of what is coming.
When the government-controlled CNE announces that there will be no independent international observers, that is a bigly tell as well.
In the end, when every poll is showing 80% support for the opposition and just 20% support for the Maduro regime and the votes reported by the government-run electoral body CNE don’t reflect an outcome even close to that, in Venezuela, that means the government cheated.
But in the end, by proving the democratic tendencies of the Venezuela people through exhausting this electoral route at the same time as proving the Maduro Regime’s repeated, flagrant, and outrageous electoral frauds, it becomes obvious to the world that Chavismo/Madurismo will never let the opposition majority come to power. Thus, the most valuable take-away from Sunday’s voting is for the international community: that without significant international assistance, there is almost no democratic way for Venezuela to shake off the devastating yoke dragging the country down the Maduro Regime’s destructive Communist path.
Thank you for your continued readership and business.
Please don’t hesistate to let me know if we can be of further assistance.
Russ Dallen | Managing Partner Caracas (58) (212) 335-1906 Miami (305) 735-8280 New York (917) 499-8346 London (44) (207) 993-4557 RMDallen@CaracasCapital.com